Are Miracles Possible?
...he/she didn’t know it was impossible, so went ahead and did it (French saying).
|THINKABLE||I will become Louis IVth||I will make a flying machine|
|UNTHINKABLE||I see what God sees||aren't bumble bees too heavy to fly?|
- This tool challenges the rationalist tendency to overlook the ineffable, or unnoticed, intangibles.
- In today's rational world we tend to confuse the ‘unthinkable’ with the ‘impossible’.
- But this is inauspicious psychology. By 'shrinking' the world into 'known knowns' it reduces our range of option.
- This exercise encourages us to think beyond what we believe to be possible.
- In mathematical terms, miracles are just incidents that are very, very improbable (i.e. NOT impossible)
- If we want to become luckier people we need to train ourselves to notice more opportunities.
The Tool's Context
- In the 21st century miracles are usually associated with an irrational belief in religious faith, or superstition
- As such, they are regarded as ‘impossible’, or are the outcome of fraudulent illusion
- Few, therefore, believe that luck can be designed (design is usually seen as a rational process of management).
- If we believe we can manipulate 'luck' this may be dismissed as 'mere' superstition
- Modern cynicism has encouraged the common confusion between the ‘unthinkable’ and the ‘impossible’.
- If we tend only embark upon what we believe to be feasible, our optimism/pessimism balance is important.
- If we believe that the unthinkable is synonymous with the impossible, we reduce the feasibilities.
- We can make miracles thinkable by regarding them as incidents of low probability
- In other words, we simply define a miracle as an exceptional event, irrespective of its semantic significance
- Mathematically speaking, a big enough sample size would always include 'extraordinary' parameters
- But the Universe is BIG - actually, it's 78 billion light-years across (light travels at 186,000 miles per second)
- Miracles can, thereby, be identified within a minimum inclusive set of all probabilities
- In order to sustain auspicious conditions a probabilistic approach is inadequate
- Orthodox mathematics represents an unsituated observer standpoint that is either prescriptive, or post-hoc
- What is needed is a self-reflexive 'situationist' method that encourages ad hoc insights in the immediate temporal present
- Using the following argument - persuade yourself that miracles are not impossible
- Once something is thinkable we can map it into a larger picture of possibilities
- The more the 'thinkable' is declared to be feasible the more attainable it becomes
- Once the ‘impossible’ is described clearly it becomes ‘shareable’
- If the 'impossible' is described affirmatively, the ‘unthinkable’ becomes (more) ‘thinkable’
- By combining several positive minds (using what we call sympoiesis we can discover new possibilities
- (also download our paper)
- In the 21st century, we often assume that miracles are ‘impossible’?
- This may be because we are too risk-averse, or busy, to deviate from convention.
- Also, the modern belief system became increasingly sceptical and rationalistic
- Max Weber's (1946) term 'disenchantment' can be interpreted as a habitual, cynical retreat from the inexplicable
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007) confirmed the black swan syndrome
- (i.e. that highly unlikely, but critical and formative events can be expected)
- Littlewood (1953) considered an event which occurs one in a million times to be 'surprising'
- We might therefore expect at least 100,000 surprising events each year in a large country
- According to Diaconis and Mosteller (1989), at the global level we can expect to see 'incredibly remarkable events'
- Richard Wiseman's research showed that people can become luckier
- He found that the main principle is to acquire a more 'positive' attitude.
- James Surowiecki (2004) claimed that decisions/choices by crowds are smarter than those by individual experts.
- We know that some things, once thought to be impracticable, or unthinkable are now seen as unremarkable
- In some cases this is the result of technological innovation and widening access to them
- This probably happens most effectively when excitement surrounding an idea makes it memorable and shareable
- And when there is contagious optimism the probability of success increases
- Put several positive minds together in collaborative synergy to find something 'impossible'.
- Ask whether the 'impossible' still has remained 'impossible' within the minds of team members.
- Develop a strategy for making what was 'impossible' even more 'possible' than it seemed to be.
- We think Mike Davies coined the term contagious optimism
- the idea that, if miracles are thinkable they may become possible was introduced before the m21 project began (Wood, 2005)
- Diaconis, P. and Mosteller, F., (1989). 'Methods of Studying Coincidences', J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 84, 853-861
- Littlewood, J. E. (1953). 'Littlewood's Miscellany', Cambridge University Press, 1986
- Sheldrake, R. (1981), 'A New Science of Life',
- Sloterdijk, P., (1983), 'A Critique of Cynical Reason',
- Use standard deviation as possible measurement
- Surowiecki, J., (2004), 'The Wisdom of Crowds',
- Taleb, N. N. 'The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable' 2007. New York: Random House
- Weber, M, (1946). 'Essays in Sociology', trans. and ed. by H. H. Gerth and C. Wright Mills, New York: Oxford University Press
- Wikipedia entry for Edward Lorenz
- Wiseman, R. (2003). 'The Luck Factor', London, UK: Random House
- Wiseman, R. (2004). 'Did you spot the gorilla? How to recognise hidden opportunities in your life'. London, UK: Random House
- Wood, J., (2005), “How Can We Design Miracles?”, introduction to “Agents of Change: A Decade of MA Design Futures”, pages 10-14, (June 1, 2005), Goldsmiths College, (Hardback), ISBN 1904158617