see metadesign book
- Agriculture & Food
- Can we ditch intensive farming - and still feed the world?
- Sustainable intensification in agricultural systems
- Global Commission Calls for a Food Revolution to Solve World’s Climate & Nutrition Problems
- Vegan meat in fast food outlets
- a better food system for Wales
- Reshaping Food and Agriculture
- Beef is worst: Poore & Nemecek, 2018
- Auspicious Reasoning
- The need for biodiversity by Carl Safina
- 1 million species face extinction
- underground ecosystem contains billions of micro-organisms
- Trump's wall would alter biological identity
- halting deforestation
- Seed monopolies
- seed sovereignty
- Bees extinctions
- Cuba pesticides and bees
- Why insect populations are plummeting—and why it matters
- Insect collapse
- More insect collapse
- Where Have All the Insects Gone?
- A sociological approach
- Why we overuse pesticides
- Companies should pay for biodiversity
- Step-by-Step Guide to Blockchain
- 5 Ways Blockchain Is Changing The Face Of Innovation of 2018
- Blockchain tip
- Blockchain Trends
- It's failing
- Cognizant has some answers
- Trustless Blockchain does not scale
- Blockchain Is About to Destroy a Centuries-Old Industry
- Is XRP a Pump and Dump Coordinated by Ripple?
- Another cryptocurrency creator $6 million fraud rap
- Climate Science
- Climate Change Actions
- Climate Change and Cognition
- Know Your Nuggets: Confirmation Bias
- Confirmation bias is easy to manipulate in communication strategies
- We all filter evidence through our pre-existing assumptions and beliefs (see Fig. 1)
- We tend to seek / interpret / prefer / recall information that endorses and sustains our belief system.
- The language that we use is also likely to colour what we notice and see.
- Fig. 1 - the Idea of Confirmation Bias
- Apophenia is a type of confirmation bias
- i.e. it is the tendency to find connections and meanings in events and things that, to others, are unrelated.
- There seem to be more global warming deniers on the political right than on the left. (Why?)
- US Billionaires fuelling hard right 1
- US Billionaires fuelling hard right 2
- Ideology (n.b. it is a complex term)
- Disinformation is a deliberate falsification of facts that are part of the reasoning process.
- (unlike 'misinformation', which is passing on incorrect information by mistake).
- Many climate change ‘skeptics’ spend a lot of time on climate change denial sites
- The Precautionary Principle
- Some climate change deniers argue that the scientific consensus is only 'scaremongering'.
- ExxonMobil’s Culture of Climate Deception?
- Disrupting the climate movement disrupters
- But this seems to put the settling of truth claims above the need to implement the lowest-risk policies
- Precaution means defaulting to the safer options where significant harm is possible
- Conspiracy theories
- These can evolve to incorporate whatever evidence exists against them
- They can become a closed system that is unfalsifiable,
- i.e. "a matter of faith rather than proof" (Barkun, M., 2003).
- Pseudoscience probably works in a similar way.
- why is Octopus so clever?
- Culture Makes Us Smarter
- Climate maturity
- Cognitive dissonance the discomfort experience arising from the presence of contradictory evidence / sometimes relieved by seeking new ways to refresh the information causing the discomfort / sufferer may actively avoid the (social) situations that generate the contradictions / Arthur Koestler (1964) bisociation)
- Climate despair
- Garret Hardin’s ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ theory (1968) / shared resources / 'Tragedy' refers to the way individuals see their impact on the commons / if everyone can let their sheep/goats graze on public land 'I' will calculate 'my' impact in 2 ways: A) this extra sheep will make a big supplement to my family's food supply. my negative impact on fishing stocks will only be tiny when averaged out for the total number of neighbours. / Hardin suggests that our brains evolved when the world was under-populated and teeming with resources i.e. Nature would always always recover from anything we could do to it. / Unfortunately, we are still 'programmed' to understand our responsibility in this context.
- Why should I sacrifice when big companies are to blame for climate change?
- The Mindset of Large Hierarchies Around 10 thousand years ago Homo sapiens swapped hunting and gathering for farming. / Food surpluses enabled us to grow into large trading and warring empires. / Five thousand years later we invented unit-based money and alphabetical writing to allow this expansion / This began to shift our thinking away from personal 'responsibility' to the bureaucratic mindset of 'accountability'
- Denialism - the avoidance of a generally accepted truth or fact
- this is generally assumed to be because it is psychologically uncomfortable (e.g. cognitive dissonance)
- In a sane person this would appear as an irrational refusal to accept empirically verifiable evidence
- Dunning-Kruger Effect
- a cognitive bias in people with low metacognitive skills to overestimate their cognitive abilities
- Belief perseverance
- State denial
- maintaining a belief despite new information that firmly contradicts it.
- Emotional Reasoning
- Emotion/s play an important role in how we understand logical principles and interpreting/choosing the options implied by them.
- see Antonio Damasio
- Situated, self-managed syntax
- The backfire effect when new evidence challenging the believer's hypothesis actually strengthens their belief.
- tribal partisanship - Perhaps humans are genetically pre-disposed to adopting peer beliefs(?)
- Attitude polarisation may happen after the group meets to discuss the views of its members
- Group polarisation occurs when a group makes decisions more extreme than the initial inclination of its members
- Climate Change Contributors
- Climate Change Denial
- UN climate accord 'inadequate' and lacks urgency
- Denying the evidence
- You can't beat fake news with science
- Climate Change 'Skepticism': 6 Overlapping Drivers
- Is BBC covering up?
- CC denial
- How to break bad news
- Psilocybin plus psychological support (pessimism biases in depression)
- The partisan brain
- Climate Change Economics
- Banks Funneled $1.9 Trillion Into Fossil Fuels Since Paris Agreement
- Addiction to Growth
- Dopamine triggers motivational_salience (e.g. money making)
- Peak prosperity is over
- William Nordhaus
- Game of Monopoly is unlike the practical economics of capitalism and different from ecosystems (See Bateson zero sum game monopoly)
- Growth and inequality
- COP24 says rich nations are not paying their share for CC
- Anthropocene Economics and Design
- the role of Insurance
- Central bankers plan for disruption caused by climate change
- Turbo capitalism
- What is tax for?
- A qualitative approach to growth economics
- Doughnut economics
- more doughnut
- Financing Prosperity Network
- COMPLEXITY & biological systems economics
- Circular economics
- Unpaid work
- Data Bias in a World Designed for Men
- Beyond money
- Climate Change Education
- Climate Change Journalism
- For meeting with Bridget McKenzie on 7th May 2019. Concerned establishing an ecofeminist culture on Woman's Hour.
- Donella Meadows was a co-pioneer (with her father --) in the original 'Limits to Growth' publication
- Meadows, D., Randers, J. & Meadows, D.,2004. Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
- She also (used systems theory to) created a list of 12 'levers for change' that are pivotal to states of emergency that require us to use the most effective levers. She pointed out that they invariably use the least effective levers for change (e.g. secondary methods, such as targets / fines / financial incentives).
- Meadows, D., 2008. Thinking in Systems: A Primer
- 6th May UN's announcement of possible end of Homo sapiens (via losses of 1 million species etc) was covered as front page news on only 2 papers (Guardian + Independent). It was covered on following day's Metro with a below page article on Page 7.
- Front page headlines were news of a Royal baby
- Manipulation of news by vested interests could be the most important issue that keeps us on course for our own extinction.
- A subsidiary issue is the culture and presentation habits of journalists.
- Cliche of popular journalism - sensationalism that is bad news (i.e. gossip and human story=bad news, but not THAT bad).
- Ideally, we need to develop more auspicious forms of reasoning that will deliver a more collective, imaginative, incentivizing and outcome-centred mode of reasoning that will support new, co-creative forms of democracy.
- possitopianism - asking what is possible (means daring to think that listeners might want the full truth, rather than a juicy twist on their (supposed) prejudiced expectations.
- Attainable Utopias launched 2001 because of disappointment over the apparent lack of vision for 21st century.
- My book 2013 Design for Micro Utopias (making the unthinkable possible) reminded people that, although your can't reach Utopia in the philosophical sense, it is wise to embark on the journey.
- The concept of debate implies 'winner versus loser' logic (i.e. machismo), rather than the best way to find better answers.
- The same applies to the metaphor of rigour, which stands for values that are anathema to the lively quality of living systems.
- Question framing is central to good journalism.
- Answer-seeking questions (e.g. "what is the time?") are quasi-scientific in that they purport to be truth-seeking. However, answers are only partially useful in an emergency because they may be peripheral to making key decisions and strategies for sensible action. Many journalistic questions are rhetorical questions that lead the conversation into areas of controversy, rather than framing genuine inquiry (e.g. "Is climate change a hoax?" / "Can we be sure that your analysis is correct?")
- Outcome-seeking questions (e.g. "how can we do X...?") are more positive, because they cannot logically be answered with a negative (e.g. "No" / "I disagree" / "Are you sure you are correct?" / "That's too ambitious")
- Climate Change Policies
- Climate Change Technology
- Climate Change Understanding
- Collective Intelligence
- Designing democracy
- Designing paradigms
- Design Thinking
- Designing Transition
- Forestry and trees
- Languaging Change
- Lobbying Change
- Narcissism and Solipsism
- Self-Awareness in Fish
- Narcissism and low self-esteem predict conspiracy beliefs
- Externalities (economic) deriving from cell logic is a kind of Solipsism similar to seeing nature as an externality. Inside-out logic of PR / accountancy / design deriving from model of rhetoric (I.e. from the ‘speech’ of an oligarch rather than from the mere ‘logos’ of a slave). Umwelt is only meaningful if it is part of a set of overlapping Umwelten with their resulting (emergent) interactions. One reason this model does not account for the notion of consciousness is that it implies a private language. (!) eco-reality is a combined set of interactions
- Auto-blocking technology
- Why do rich people lie, cheat and steal more than low income people?
- Utterly self-centred rich kid imports endangered python skin
- 10 proposals for the 10 challenges of Davos
- The Fossil Fuels Lobby has a vested interest in surviving as an industry.
- It plays a critical role in shaping public policy (e.g. in the UK and USA)
- Energy subsidies by governments keep fossil fuels prices artificially low, thus encouraging citizens to find economic reasons for supporting the industry.
- Fossil fuels subsidised by $10m a minute (IMF)
- extractives companies and the ‘cowboy economy’
- Anti-fossil fuel norms
- Organisational Consciousness
- Primates Research
- Renewable energy
- Allowance (A contagious social spirit that offers a self-induced ‘license to relax’)
- Catalysis (only takes place when a ‘hole’ or ‘death’ leaves space for innovation)
- Circular economy (understood as a framework for synergies)
- Creative quartets
- Entredonneur (in conjunction with ‘entrepreneur’)
- Languaging (verb – also see Maturana & Varela)
- Long tail
- Paradigm change (rather than ‘game changing’)
- Seeding (rather than ‘targeting’, or designing specific outcomes)
- Self-interest (in the collective, long-term sense rather than individual, short-term sense)
- Structural coupling (See Maturana & Varela)
- Synergy-of-synergies (ultimate proliferation/sharing of abundance at least cost to all)
- Thinking beyond the possible (see designing miracles).
- Trim tab - a useful cybernetic principle
The main purpose of 'auspicious reasoning' is practical. It is part of a metadesign methodology designed to deal with complex tasks, such as climate repair. Habits are sustained to a large extent by our assumptions and the way we reason. Modern democratic discourse still owes much to the several thousand years of Platonic reasoning that was rational and 'truth-oriented', rather than pragmatic. This tradition was evident in the reasoning that emerged through Enlightenment science, when observational detachment was believed to be vital. This emphasis was also evident in recent discussions about climate change in which scientists were repeatedly asked what was 'true', rather than looking for precautionary actions. This differs from more designerly approaches, in which actions are guided by whether a given idea 'works', rather than its veracity.
In order to intervene effectively at the paradigmatic level it is necessary to explore the many layers of language and reasoning that governs human behaviour. We know by experience that, although most of the gadgets and ideas that currently shape our lives were unexpected, with a bit more imagination and optimism we might have anticipated them. This suggests that the signs of possible futures are lurking all around us. By seeking hidden, intangible, or nameless possibilities we might find more auspicious frames of reference. Hypothetically speaking, with a sufficiently auspicious approach, one might get close to designing miracles.
Some Genres of Political Reasoning
Presumably, the more combative methods, such as 'debate', emerged from a political culture in which competition was an important basis for eliminating 'weak' arguments.
|1.||Debating||originated from (literally) 'beating down' an opponent||emphasises winner more than outcome|
|2.||Compromising||settling differences by mutual concession||carries sense of shameful retreat|
|3.||Problem-solving||reframing the inauspicious aspect of a situation||may limit one's responsiveness|
|4.||Amelioration||making a bad situation (seem) better||often only a superficial improvement|
|5.||Designing||offering affordances by shaping or arranging||may seem instrumentalist|
|6.||Synergising||recombination to create unpredictable innovation||synergy is seldom seen as auspicious|
Reasoning That is Deliberately Inauspicious
- RELATIONS are generally more valuable than either LISTENER or SPEAKER
- i.e. collaboration is wiser than individual wisdom
- you can’t have a conversation with less than two
- a BUT is a small interrupter or blocker of collaborative RELATIONS
- a YES is more useful and valuable than a NO
- a YES usually affords more OPPORTUNITIES than a NO
- YES and NO are both bigger than the QUESTION they address
- YES always refers to the LISTENER as well as to the QUESTION
- the LISTENER’S UNCONSCIOUS may interpret a NO as a rebuff
- the SPEAKER'S UNCONSCIOUS may also interpret NO as a call to defend herself
- a defensive interlude may deflect attention from unnoticed OPPORTUNITIES
- it can adversely affect the RELATIONSHIP between LISTENER and SPEAKER
- The act of framing a PROBLEM may also deflect from unnoticed OPPORTUNITIES
Problems and Opportunities
- OPPORTUNITY-FINDING is more valuable than PROBLEM-SOLVING
- because how we frame a PROBLEM will serve to shape its possible SOLUTIONS
- we unconsciously guide PROBLEM-SOLVING by the metaphors we choose
- some PROBLEMS can be sidestepped by re-framing or re-languaging them
- i.e. in framing a PROBLEM - the framer narrows the horizon of perception
- most OPPORTUNITIES call out for a situated context in time and place
- some OPPORTUNITIES call out for the as-yet unnoticed or ill-defined
- It may be wise to interpret a PROBLEM as an OPPORTUNITY
- It may be wise to interpret a the framing of a PROBLEM as an OPPORTUNITY
Time and Place
- The FUTURE is generally more useful than the PAST
- There is more potential in the FUTURE than there is in the PAST
- i.e. the FUTURE consists of more YES and less NO
- In the world of OPPORTUNITY-SEEKING only the FUTURE is in focus
- In OPTION X - the argument that it MAY NOT WORK - also implies that it MAY WORK
- Whether we interpret this statement in a pessimistic, or an optimistic way will affect the outcome.
- Adopting an optimistic (rather than a pessimistic) stance makes designing miracles more likely.
- An auspicious syntax is likely to be framed in a 'future positive'.
- Perhaps the least auspicious mode of statement is a moral imperative, framed negatively in the past tense:
- e.g. "He ought not to have done it..."
- Perhaps the least auspicious mode of statement is a moral imperative, framed negatively in the past tense:
- By combining these modes of reasoning it is possible to design a more auspicious way of thinking.
Although many studies of ecological relationships and military conflict studies represent only the players who are directly engaged in negotiation or dispute, etc. the context for this process will always have a relevance. What Humberto Maturana calls 'languaging' (Maturana, 1978) is the mutual meaning-making activity by which adjacent organisms first create, then settle on, a workable code of communication. It is important to emphasise that this process is part of each organism's survival repertoire. It is both creative and co-creative. Co-dependent organisms are also likely to depend on others in the food web. Although the conventional idea of 'co-authorship' may lead to a type of (functional/structural) 'coupling' between authors, most publishers, universities, employers focus primarily on the outcome. In some cases, this process is less of a structural mode of coupling if it is characterised by highly cynical, or hierarchical processes in which a team leader will precis and 'edit' existing documents, rather than encouraging the much longer, deeper process of 'structural coupling' that might lead to co-creative innovation by the team of authors. We call this deeper mode sympoiesis (Wood & Nieuwenhuijze, 2006). We defined it using the following performance indicators:
Arguably, sympoiesis could be regarded as a particular form of symbiosis (Margulis, 1998). Indeed, both are special forms of synergy that relate to living organisms. As alluded to above, scientists have tended to map different benefits from coupling into a schema that identifies individual players, rather than emergent benefits for the whole system. I am not an expert, and this is work in progress. The distribution of coupling types into five categories: mutual, commensal, exploitative, amensal and neutral make for a rather limited mapping of how organisms interact (see Rayner, 2012). The term 'exploitative' includes both 'parasitic coupling' and 'predator-prey coupling in one category. Where 'mutualism' describes a RELATIONSHIP that brings benefits to both. While 'commensalism' resembles parasitism in describing RELATIONSHIPS that benefit only one of the organisms, however, without disadvantaging the other. In this case I have mapped the system from the standpoint of other organisms (e.g. summarised as 'the ecosystem') beyond the couplings in QUESTION. This has served to change the conventional taxonomy and indicates the relative unimportance of individuals, within the system.
Relative benefit/loss chart for different types of coupling